In this study, the role of gender in political orientation was investigated. In this regard, a sample of 1600 voters was selected randomly and questioned over their political orientation. Of these 1600, 700 were men while the other 900 were women. Chi square test was run to determine if the two variables, gender and political orientation, were correlated. The data obtained showed that there was no relationship between gender and political orientation. The data obtained further showed that the more women were likely to vote for the Democratic Party while more men were likely to vote for the Republican Party. Another observation that was made was that turnout among men was lower than that between women. The turnout gap showed a tendency to increase over time.
(Keywords: US voting intelligence, US voters, gender issues, political parties, The Democratic Party, The Republican Party)
This paper statistically analyses the difference among groups in term of a categorical dependent variable. It compares men and women in terms of their political party affiliation (democrat or republican). The research aims to understand whether composition of the sample and interpret the data in relation with the population. Previous researches have concentrated more on the political leanings on the grounds of race and age. There have also been researches on the relationships between marital statuses and political orientations. This has left the role of gender on politics unattended. This study addresses the concept of gender and political orientation and whether gender can comfortably be used to label individuals in a society as either Republican or Democrat.
Methodology
Research was conducted on a total of 1600 participants. All participants were selected randomly from a mixed population all over the US. Among those investigated were the 900 women and 700 men. The random sampling method was employed based on its reliability and its capacity to eliminate errors in the sample. Upon selection, the individuals were informed on the purpose of the research and the type of information they would be required to provide. They were then requested to confirm that they would be willing to participate. This level of the research did not meet any difficulties and most participants were willing to participate in the research. The consent forma was then signed to confirm their willingness to participate. In case people were found unfit to participate in the study were replaced randomly.
Table 1 is a contingency table is a showing the items from a population of male and female. The participants are classified according to two characteristics in terms of party identification and gender. The objective is of this table is to analyze the relationship between two qualitative variables, that is, to investigate whether a dependence relationship exists between two variables or whether the variables are statistically independent.
Table 1: Sample Distribution
| Gender data | |||
| Party Identification | Males | Females | Total |
| Democrat | 200 | 700 | 900 |
| Republican | 500 | 200 | 700 |
| Totals | 700 | 900 | 1600 |
A number of factors should be considered when transforming a contingency table for interpretation. According to Creswell (2011), it is important to understand the patterns in order to interpret the contingency table. The value of a cell is the proportion of observation from a particular independent valuable. In this case, male and female genders are the independent valuables. The next step is to convert the observation in the cells into a percentage of the total observations in the column. One must show the total number for each column on which to base the percentage California State University (2014). The last stage is interpretation. Interpretation involves comparing the percentage across the dependent categories (the rows). In this case, Republican and Democratic parties are the dependent valuables.
Table 2: Calculation
| Gender data | |||
| Party Identification | Males | Females | Total (N) |
| Democrat | 200/900 * 100% | 700/900 * 100% | 900 |
| Republican | 500/700 * 700% | 200/700 * 100% | 700 |
| Totals | 700 | 900 | 1600 |
Table 3: Percentage distribution
| Gender data | |||
| Party Identification | Males | Females | Total (N) |
| Democrat | 22 % | 78 % | 100 % |
| Republican | 71 % | 29 % | 100 % |
The participants of this research were 700 men and 900 women. Both groups were required to declare their party identification. Table 6 shows that out of 900 participants more women, 78% (n = 700), than men (22 %) (n= 200), identify with Democratic Party. Conversely, out of 700 participants, more men 71% (n=500) than women 29 % (n=200) declared their support for Republican Party.
Comparison of population and samples can be done by several methods. According to Creswell, the chi-square analysis is best used to analyze independent variables. Chi-squares allow for more than two or more outcomes. It is possible to test the null hypothesis against the research hypothesis with chi-square.
We can do a chi-square for the independent variables. The independent variables in this case are two: gender and party identification. We should test the hypothesis whether there is any difference between gender and party membership.
The following procedures should be followed when computing a hypothesis, according to Engel (2009).
The null hypothesis
H0: There is no difference in gender and party membership.
The alternative hypothesis
H1: There is a difference in gender and party membership.
The test level of significance for alpha
We take α = 5% or 0.05
The test statistic in this case is chi-square.
Notation of Chi-square
The value of is such that the area to its right under the chi-square curve is equal to and is denoted by . The value is the point such that the area to its right is . Hence, the area to its left is .
For Chi-square;
Table 4: Calculating proportions
| Gender data | |||
| Party Identification | Males | Females | Total |
| Democrat | 700*900/1600 | 900*900/1600 | 900 |
| Republican | 700*700/1600 | 900*700/1600 | 700 |
| Totals | 700 | 900 | 1600 |
Table 5: Proportions of gender data
| Gender data | |||
| Party Identification | Males | Females | Total |
| Democrat | 393.75 | 506.25 | 900 |
| Republican | 306.25 | 393.75 | 700 |
| Totals | 700 | 900 | 1600 |
The x2 values represent the accumulated differences between observed and expected cell counts.
Table 6: Chi Square distributions
| Observed (o) | Expected (e) | (o-e) | (o-e)2 | (o-e)2 /e |
| 200 | 393.75 | -193.75 | 37, 539.0625 | 95.3373 |
| 500 | 306.25 | 193.75 | 37, 539.0625 | 122.576 |
| 700 | 506.25 | 193.75 | 37, 539.0625 | 74.1512 |
| 200 | 393.75 | -193.75 | 37, 539.0625 | 95.3373 |
| Total | 387.4018 |
X2 = 387.4018
The value of X2 is observed in the chi-square is 387.4018
We should then compare it with the critical values in chi-square table.
The number of degrees of freedom for a contingency table with rows and columns is .
d.f= (2-1) (2-1)
d.f = 1
Critical value (alpha = .05, 1 df) is 3.841
387.4018 ˃3.841
The chi-square in this research is used to test for independence of two variables, gender and party identification. The chi-square test proves that there is a difference between gender and party identification. Gender and party membership are both dependent. Thus, the data is a fair representative sample of the population. It succeeds in providing the association between the dependent and independent variables.
The opposing side, this method may not give correct results because of the underlying assumptions. According to explorable.com (2014), one of such assumption is that the population from which the sample is obtained has normal distribution. Therefore, the independence test might be misleading. The p-value used is an approximate value for correlation. The same people who participated in the first data might participate in the second one. The above case means that it is possible to obtain two measurements from one participant. Another assumption is that the distribution of deviations of observed and expected frequency counts has a normal distribution.
The research adhered to strict ethical guidelines. It made sure that human subjects were treated according to IRB standards. Mistreatment of subjects was therefore out of the question. Human subjects were also not humiliated during research. With this regard, the survey questions were highly reviewed before being submitted to subjects. This eliminated those that had a potential of causing humiliation to the subjects. Furthermore, participants were allowed to offer information by mailing back the survey questions after completion of the survey questions. Participants were also informed that they had the right to skip any question they considered unethical or improper.
Contribution was strictly on consent. The participants were requested to sign a consent form that contained the information about how information provided would be used. Participants were also informed about the procedures that would be used as well as the time the research was expected to take. The participants were also informed of their right to withdraw from the research if they wished to. In this case, there would be no consequences on the part of the participant. Participants were also informed about any factors that would influence their choice to participate. They were made aware of the fact theta their confidentiality would not be broken even if they provided the researcher with their information. They were also given a contact number and address in case they wished to follow-up with questions or further information.
The research also respected the confidentiality and privacy of the participants. Observing the confidentiality and privacy of participants is vital to proper research practices. The American Psychologist Association (2003) advises using a set of increasingly sensitive questions so that participants can opt out of the research if they feel uncomfortable. This strategy was used in the research during face to face interviews and phone interviews.
Finally, participant’s information would be stored safely by all means. Private information would be kept separately with the data provided by the participants. If the researchers determined that they no longer needed the information, it would be destroyed so as to remove the risk. With these standards, it was determined that risk would be maintained at a basic minimum.
A few limitations were also present in the study. First, the study only used a sample of 1600 participants. The small sample size may present information that cannot be used to represent the entire trade industry. Courtesy bias may also have reduced the reliability of the research findings. In studies where personal reporting is used, various forms of biases may be involved. A participant may even opt to provide unreliable information. An intensive literature review would also be conducted to counter the limitations. Major databases like ProQuest, EBSCOhost along with government websites would also be searched to provide further information on the issue. The literature review offered an extra opinion on which to compare results. Information that would be found to depart from the literature review very distantly would be handled with caution. The various participants would also be expected to provide relatively uniform information. Any data that would be seen to depart from the rest of the research would also be handled carefully.
Research intends to display the internal beliefs, views or facts of participants. It must therefore extract such information from the participants and present them in such a way that they are evidently understandable to the intended audience. The interpretation is done to a certain degree of accuracy referred to as the interpretative validity. An accurate interpretative validity is informed by the views of the participants (Zhang & Wildemuth, 2009).
The research findings found that in a total of 900 democrats, there were a total of 200 males and 700 females. This represented a fraction of 22 % and 78 % respectively. On the other hand, there were 500 males and 200 females in a total of 700 republicans. These represented fractions of 71 % and 29 % respectively. At first glance, we may note that most females (700 out of 900) are democrats. On the other hand, most males are republicans. Men represent 500 of 700 hundred republicans. On the other hand, it is notable that there are more female voters than male voters and that there are more democrats than republicans.
On analyzing the data using chi-test, a confidence interval of 0.05 was picked. A confidence interval leaves a 5 % allowance for error. The analysis showed that there is no correlation between gender and party orientation. Instead, it confirmed the alternative hypothesis that there is a difference in gender and party membership. The implication of this finding is that the probability of getting a woman who is inclined to the Republican Party is higher than 0.05. The scenario is the same for men being inclined to the Democratic Party.
According to the study, there existed a bigger population of women voters than male voters. Since voters were randomly selected, this should show the general direction of the general population in regard to the gender fractioning. According to an article by Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) (2014), the proportion of women voters has been rising steadily. On the other hand, the proportion of male voters has been dipping. The study reviewed the voter turnouts of both genders over the past years. The results showed that women had always turned out in larger fractions than men. Moreover, the turnout gap had always been increasing.
The study also shows that there were more democrats than republicans. While this seems representative of the general US population, there are other factors that may play a role. Different groups are likely to influence the distribution of membership in the population. First, the campaign strategies of individuals are likely to influence the political orientation of participants. If one party offers better perks for the entire population, he gets elected. The economic situation of the nation also determines the likelihood a certain party getting a bigger following. An incumbent leader gets a following if he has ensured a better state of living in the country. Second, the race of participants is likely to influence the orientation of voting. African Americans and Latinas are more likely to vote Democrat. It is for this reason that Democratic Party gets a bigger following as the colored population increases in certain regions.
Thirdly, the male population voted more for the republicans. The female population on the other hand voted more for the democrats. In other words, the Democratic Party would have won among women while the Republican Party would have won among men. The study can be supported by previous election results. In 2012, President Barrack Obama won among female voters against Mitt Romney by 56 % against 44 %. Mitt Romney on the other hand won among the male population by 54 % against 46 % (Jones, 2014). It could be representative of the general population in the country in some way.
The results do not show a direct correlation between the orientation of voting and the gender. This implies that the parties are not generally divided along the lines of gender. Indeed, there are people who vote along family lines such that the entire family votes for one individual.
This study could be important in the future for groups that want to strategize for elections. With this information, it is easier to understand how best to target certain communities. Certain communities are more likely to vote for a certain individuals. On another note, it is more likely that this report can be used to understand who to mobilize. As shown in the report, men’s turnout is poor. It would therefore be appropriate to mobilize more men to turnout. This would especially be important for the republicans who are voted more by men. Republicans would also strive to target and obtain a larger following among women. Women would also be mobilized more by Democrats to increase the turnout gap and to increase the number of votes for democrats. However, as noted, voting is not generally divided along gender lines.
The study shows that while there are more female democrats and more male republicans, there is no correlation between gender and political orientation. The study further shows that individuals cannot be viewed to be oriented to a certain party on the basis of their gender. There are various recommendations that can be made to the target audience of this report.
First, the voter turnout among male voters is too low. The politicians should target to ensure that their male voters were motivated to vote in future elections. Women voters are also more reliable voters as they will turnout in larger numbers compared to men. For this reason, the amount time spent selling policies and ideals to women is more wisely invested than that which is invested with men. It would therefore be advisable for both parties to campaign among women for more impact.
More men are republicans than democrats. On the other hand, women are mostly inclined to the Democratic Party. This implies that at the present, the parties have not fared well with the different genders. It is likely that the Democratic Party offers better policies that favor women in the Democratic Party (Gibson, Nixon &Ward, 2003). It may be for this reason that women have inclined to the party. On the other hand, men may feel favored by the promises of the Republican Party. The turnout however may be used to imply that men are unconvinced by whatever the two parties’ manifestos have to offer
Each of the parties should align their policies and manifestos to the favor of everyone in the population. Policies should also be equitable so as to offer growth without inclining on one gender. This way, the party will win other people into the party.
This study had a lot to learn. First, it showed that more people were inclined to the Democratic Party. More specifically, there are more women than men who come out to vote and most of them favor the Democratic Party. Second, more men favor the Republican Party. The turnout for men is poorer than the one for women. The difference in the political leanings is however not sufficient to imply that there is a correlation between gender and political affiliations. The political leanings fall outside the 5% confidence interval required for the study.
Before this study, it was assumed that the turnout for men was healthier than that of women. Surprisingly, the opposite is true. My opinion was biased by the tendency to find men being more political. It would therefore be expected that more men would vote than men. Probabilities are that men are help up at their jobs to the extent of not being able to find time to vote. Alternatively, men may prioritize other matters to voting (Rankin, 2012). It may also be probable that women get more attention during the campaign period to warrant the higher turnout.
It was also not expected that women would be more inclined to one party than the other. On the contrary it was expected that family influence would be sufficient to create a uniform voting pattern. The voting patterns however show that voting patterns are partly inclined by gender. The voting patterns may be so inclined based on the contents of the manifestos of the different parties. Women may embrace the change that is associated with the Democratic Party while men may be more conservative and hence the inclination towards the Republican Party.
The research has covered the correlation of gender and political orientation. It found several issues that were unexplored. First, the study showed an unexplained general political inclination along gender. This observation is also held by Miller and Shanks (1996). These two authors feel that the differences in voting patterns between men and women are primarily based on the differences in their policies supported by the two parties. They argue that men were more likely to vote for those parties that supported issues that were going to affect the economy and the overall economy. Women on the other hand, prefer to vote for those parties that support women rights and gender based issues. This inclination should be explored and an explanation sought. Future studies should strive to answer a variety of questions including:
Second, the study did not explain why there is a bigger turn out among women than there are men. There should also be an explanation why men fail to vote. Blais et al. (2004) note that there were more women likely to vote at older age than men. They further note that there was a tendency for the turnout in the form of percentages to decline with time. While these studies identify that there is a bigger turnout among women, no explanation has been given. Future studies should answer the following questions:
Thirdly, the samples taken were too low to represent the entire population. There are over 200 million voters in the US according to Statistics Brain (2014). A population of 1600 participants is insufficient to represent such a big population. Future studies should strive to capture bigger populations to eliminate errors. More intensive study of the data provided may also help to lower the divide in politics along gender lines.
Finally, other factors should be considered in the study. Factors like education should be integrated into the study. Blais et al. (2004), for example, notes the important role that education plays in determining the voting patterns. The study should seek to determine if educated women, for example, vote differently from those who have little education. The correlation between age and voting can also be an important factor especially if it is integrated into the current study. In the study by Blais et al. (2014), the authors study voters’ turnout along the lines of age, generation, gender and period. The study by Miller and Shanks (1996) study voting patterns along the lines of age, marital status and gender. This signifies a need to incorporate more variables than there already are.
The research sought to determine if there is relationship between voting patterns and gender. It is a quantitative research and obtains numerical data with regard to the voting patterns of Americans. The study was carried to help politicians with information that regards the voting patterns of different genders. The research found out a variety of issues. First, it found that women are often more likely to vote than men. Second, political orientation and gender are not correlated.
The study determined that a relationship does not exist between gender and political leaning. The study shows the need for various things to be done by individuals with political interests. First, with this study it is likelier that the political strategies will be altered. There will be alterations in regard to how individuals handle their campaigns in the future. Republicans will require a bigger turnout rate especially among men. It is therefore up to them to campaign the gospel of turnout. Turnout is the most important aspect of this study. If men continue to miss elections, the Republican Party risks continued failure.
On the other hand, women are generally likelier to turn out for elections. Both parties will take this to imply that women are a surer bet than men. For this reason, they will tend to put more effort towards campaigning among women. This may lead to an alteration of manifestos to be more gender equitable and their leadership to be more gender inclusive. This will lead to better standards of living and better opportunities for women.
The study may also have implications on the manifestos in regard to men. It is probable that programs that matter more to men will become more available. Mainly, this will be intended to incite more men to participate in the voting exercise. Candidates with an intention of capturing male voters will insist on turnout in the future rather than just converting.
This study also opens up doors for future studies. This study has raised various issues that need further research. The study requires that more research be conducted in regard to the distribution of women among the different political orientations. The research can also be improved by increasing the sample size, for example
The type of research is the quantitative research. It determined that the number of women who are likely to vote was higher than the number of men voters. It was expected that there would be a correlation between gender and political orientation. It was also expected that based on the number activeness of males in politics, there would be a bigger population of male voters. The findings showed that women were more likely to vote in favor of the Democratic Party. Men on the other hand were likelier to vote in favor of the Republican Party. While this was true, the inclination was not sufficient to show a correlation between gender and political orientation. The findings were therefore contrary to the expectations of the study on the larger part. This chapter is the final part of the study. It concludes the study by obtaining the very last part of the puzzle. There is insufficient evidence to show any relationship between gender and political orientation.
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