Evaluation of the 2014 Virginia Senate Race

The Virginia State is very much unlike other Southern States. The Senate race for 2014 will be between mark Warner and Ed Gillespie with Democratic and Republican parties respectively. The polls will be held on November 4, 2014.

Recently, the Virginia State has seen to an increase in the number of minorities as compared to other states. These mostly include blacks, Hispanics and Asians. This change in demographics may see to a change in the voting patterns as would be expected (Brians & Vidal, n.d.). Similarly, the number of moderately rich, college educated and Suburban population has been seen. In 1990, the population of the whites was 91 % of total voters. In 2010, white voters only made up for a total of 78 % of the voters in Virginia. It is expected that this year, white voters will drop to only 75 %.

According to the US Census Bureau (2014), the population of whites in Virginia in 2013 comprised 70.8 % compared to 77.7 % in the US. Black or African American population comprised of 19.7 % compared to the 13.2 % of the entire US population. Latinos in Virginia comprise of 8.6 % compared to 17.1 % of the US population. Virginia therefore seems to have a higher population of blacks as compared to the US. It however has less of the other races compared to the US population.

The Senate seat is currently held by the Democrat Mark Warner since January 2009. Before him was John Warner who held the seat for a period of 30 years from 1979 to 2009 on a Republican ticket (Brians & Vidal, n.d.). William L. Scott had held the Senate seat for the previous six years won a republican ticket. AS seen, the seat has been with the republicans for a long time and the Democrats have only been power for the past one term. Bush occupied the Presidential seat from 2000 – 2008. He won the seat with a 53 % against 44 % and again 54 % against 46 % in 2000 and 2004 respectively. He was removed by Barrack Obama who still occupies the seat. Barrack Obama won the seat by 53 % against 46 % and 51 % against 47 % in 2008 and 2012 respectively (270towin.com, 2014). While the changes in the population have been in the favor of the democrats, there is also a notable fluctuation in the elections. It cannot be argued that any one party has a bigger following than the other by merely looking at the voting patterns.

The changes in the demographics of Virginia have been in the favor of Democrats. The trends in history also show a departure from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. Warner is likely to take the seat with a 48 % majority followed by Gillespie with a 42 % minority.

Ed Gillespie is a communications consultant and a former aide of the White House. He has also worked as a counselor of the former President George W. Bush during the last 18 months of his administration. He is a co-founder of the Quinn Gillespie and Associates a firm that specializes in government relations. Marker Warner is the incumbent Senator of Virginia. He was elected in November 2008 (Realclearpolitics.com, 2014). He has mainly been seen as a national leader with an interest in finding bipartisan consensus in matters like reducing federal deficit and debt. In this, he pursues a leaner and more efficient government system. Warner has also worked as a governor of Virginia between 2002 and 2006. By the end of his period in office in 2006, his state was regarded as the best state to do business, and the best managed state.

Different issues have risen among voters in Virginia. First, the college students want those leaders who will provide them job opportunities (Fuller, 2014). It therefore seems that joblessness is a major issue in Virginia. The candidate who offers to increase the number of jobs is likely to get the votes of the youth population. Second, a majority of the entire population of Virginia is after redistricting or employing an independent body to redraw district boundaries. Currently, the Virginia map concentrates black voters in specific areas. The majority of voters in Virginia would want the issue to be resolved. Illegal immigration is also a major issue in Virginia (Valerio, 2014). They want measures to be put up to get rid of illegal immigration. Amongst the measures most recommended include the introduction of traffic checks at boundaries.

With all these circumstances, there are still high chances that Warner will win with a 51 % majority. He will be followed by Gillespie with 45 % majority. The polls show a 47 % and 37 % baseline for Warner and Gillespie respectively (270towin.com, 2014). If these results are merged with the previously obtained results, the baseline could move to 49 % and 41 % respectively.

References

270towin.com,. (2014). 2014 Senate Election Polls. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://www.270towin.com/2014-senate-polls/

Brians, C., & Vidal, L. Demographic Change and Evolving Voting Patterns in Virginia.

Ed Gillespie,. (2014). Meet Ed. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://edforsenate.com/about/

Fuller, j. (2014). Common Core might be the most important issue in the 2016 Republican presidential race. Here’s what you need to know about it.. Washington Post. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/23/common-core-might-be-the-most-important-issue-in-the-2016-republican-presidential-race-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-it/

Realclearpolitics.com,. (2014). Latest Polls | RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 15 October 2014, from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

US Census Bureau,. (2014). Virginia QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau. Retrieved 15 October 2014, from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html

Valerio, M. (2014). Decision Virginia: U.S. Senate Race 2014. Blogs.nbc12.com. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://blogs.nbc12.com/decisionvirginia/us-senate-race-2014/

Warner.senate.gov,. (2014). Biography – Meet Sen. Warner – Mark R. Warner. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://www.warner.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/biography

Weiner, R. (2014). Mark Warner targets Ed Gillespie’s Enron work in Virginia Senate race. Washington Post. Retrieved 12 October 2014, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mark-warner-targets-ed-gillespies-enron-work-in-virginia-senate-race/2014/10/02/7e40d758-4a5e-11e4-891d-713f052086a0_story.html