Dear Sir/Madam,
This is the last account of the
report on Poor Decision Making in the
banking industry that was commissioned by the World Bank. This report researches on ten companies distributed over five countries.
From this report, while decision making
is the major role of the executive,
sometimes, they make wrong decisions.
These decisions are sometimes prompted by political influence, neglect of business policies or the
failure to perform sufficient research on the topic before making
a final decision. Most of these factors
can be evaded and thereby, reduce the
risk of loss of jobs, business assets and even lives.
Thank you for
giving me the opportunity to work on this report
4.0. Bank of America (BofA). 7
4.2. Royal Bank of Scotland. 9
4.3. Co-operative bank (UK). 10
4.4. The National Australia Bank. 11
4.8. Deutsche Bank Germany. 14
5.0. Analysis and discussion. 15
6.0. Conclusion and recommendation. 17
DECLARATION BY MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATIONAL
BEHAVIOUR STUDENTS. 22
Executive Summary
This report was authorized by the World Bank to
provide input into poor decisions that have been made by banks over the period
2000-2013. The report involves 10 banks distributed over five countries (USA,
UK, Australia, Germany, and India) that have had crises over that time due to
poor decision making.
The bank industry is a very important industry. Failure in this industry can collapse the entire economy or even cause a slowdown in growth. This research is an extensive research about poor decision making in this industry, its effects, and how it can be avoided in the future
The second
largest bank in USA, Bank of
America, bought a company by the name
Countrywide in 2008. Immediately after the takeover, the housing market collapsed
turning acquisition to be one
of the worst judgments that the
bank executive could have done. Similarly,
the Co-operative Bank in the
UK and the Bayern-Lb bank purchased Britannia Housing
Society and Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank respectively.
The acquisitions ignite a series of losses that eventually bring the companies
down. Eventually, the banks seek
support from their governments
and are bailed out.
The executive of J P Morgan, the largest bank
in the USA, decided to invest more than the
allowed amount in high risk investments.
In a bid to change the terms of the
investment, they changed the terms
and further increased the risk
of the investment. By the time they announced
the results of this investment, the
bank had already
gone through a $2 billion which would increase to $9 billion. The
National Bank of Australia and Deutsche Bank invested in the money
and bond markets
respectively. The markets went against their expectations leading to substantial losses.
The Royal Bank of
Scotland, the largest bank in the world
at the moment fails and has to be bailed out. The Bank of Queensland,
United Bank of India and State Bank of India get involved into too many bad
loans that they appeal
for state intervention.
In each of these cases,
we find that
the executives were in a position to make wiser decisions
but for some
reasons did not. This report reviews
each case individually
and then makes
a firm decision on the way forward
to avoid poor decisions from resulting in such significant losses.
1.0. Introduction
This research was authorised by the World Bank to provide input on poor decisions
by companies that might have happened between the years 2000-2013. This research seeks to closely analyse some decisions that have been made in the
banking industry, their results and how
they could have been avoided.
The research looks into 10 banks from Australia,
Germany, India, UK and USA. Their decisions
vary from one to the other and so
does the damage
caused. This paper seeks to champion the thesis that
most of the problems experienced in the banking industry
are majorly founded on poor decisions and with proper mechanisms, these problems can be avoided[1].
The issue
of poor decision making has been deeply researched in the past. The
reason this has been so is due
to the importance it commands in every
business. The writers discuss different
aspects of the issue and come
to a solid decision that is contained in this paper.
According to Haibin Zhu
in his article Capital Regulation and
Banks’ Financial Decisions, banks are the most regulated
companies in the entire world. To ensure
that risky and speculative decisions do not affect the consumers, bank capitals are usually regulated. But, according to many sources, banks have
been known to be deceptive to the relevant authorities thereby investing more
than is provided and thereby risking the prevalence of the banks[2].
According to a report by the House of Commons
Treasury Committee in UK on the collapse
of the RBS, while the regulations may be present, the authorities
concerned are not good enough at ensuring that the regulations
are followed[3].
This report was done through a step-by-step analysis of each of the ten banks. The banks were qualified only on the basis that they had experienced cases where bad decisions had resulted in significant losses. The paper first assesses each of the ten cases individually and then gives a general review for all ten cases.
In
2008, the Bank’s purchase of the mortgage lender
Countrywide seemed like a brilliant
idea. By buying Countrywide,
BofA would become the largest loan and
mortgage servicer in USA. The
union turned BofA into a huge player in the
mortgage business immediately before the bursting of the housing
bubble[4]. Since then, the bank
has lost huge sums in legal fees,
real estate losses and settlement
with federal and state agencies. In total, the acquisition
has come to cost the bank more
than $40 billion. This amount is far even higher than J. P. Morgan’s infamous loss which was only $9 billion. Immediately after the deal in 2008, experts got concerned as to whether the deal
was too big
of a risk. BofA lost US$ 8.9
billion and US$3.8 billion in 2010 and
2009[5]. Also
as a result of the
Countrywide, BofA had to pay
$600 million to pension investors who
claimed Countrywide costed them money.
The bank is also paying $108 million to SEC
over allegations that
Countrywide charged excessively
to customers who would not pay their mortgages and were facing
foreclosure[6]. The
bank also accepted
to pay $335 million over allegations
that Countrywide used
discriminative lending practices. With these fees, Bank of America had at some point
last year (2013) considered putting Countrywide up for bankruptcy. Since BofA maintained Countrywide as a separate legal
entity, it is possible to put it
up for bankruptcy alone[7].
The acquisition of
Countrywide looked like a great
idea at the point of purchase. But, at the time
of purchase, the state of USA had just
declared the beginning of the recession.
The executive of the bank should have
known better than to purchase a housing business at that point.
They also should have considered declaring
the company bankrupt as soon as they realised it was
a fluke. They, however, held on to the market
and kept dealing
with the consequences of
their decisions.
Another bank
that has had similar woes in the past
is J P Morgan chase. Around 2007-2008, under the leadership of Ina Drew, the Chief Investment Officer, the bank invested in high
risk investment. By 2012, the bank had
reviewed the terms of the agreement,
getting deeper into risk. At this
point, they estimated the losses
to be at $2 billion. They, however,
estimated that the losses would go
up to about $3 billion. By the
time the liquidation was over, the
bank had lost
a total of 10 billion dollars[8].
This is a good example of how
poor decision making can cost the
business. The risk involved in this
deal should have been enough to warn
the CIO from investing in the securities. However,
the possibility of high profits was
high and made
the members behind making the decision
not to review the risk appropriately.
The decision of surpassing the investment absolute
value in a business is one that should not be made
one or two individuals in the company. Prevention
can be done by ensuring the companies are vigilant when dealing
with people who show disregard to the company’s policies[9].
Another bank
that has had its woes in the world is Royal Bank of
Scotland. At the beginning of
2008, the RBS was the largest bank
in the world with over £3.5 trillion in asset foundation. However, at the end
of the year, the bank went
down and had
to be bailed out by the government. The failure
was later to be blamed on mismanagement and a series of poor decisions.
The bank was
found to disregard important procedures when making the
transactions. They neither recognized nor re-examined the balance sheet threats relating to capital, liquidity and asset quality .
It was noted that
the regulation authority was in a position to warn the
company against failure. However, they failed
in their role and the business collapsed.
In
2009, Co-operative Bank formed a merger
with Britannia housing Society. At the
time the merger
was made, it
raised many expectations.
First, it increased
the bank’s size
by a big margin. The bank moved
from £15 billion in assets, 0.5 million customers and 90 branches to 50 billion in
assets, 3.4 million customers and 344 branches countrywide. However, with
all the advantages that
Britannia came with, it also brought with itself a
corporate loan book.
Co-operative Bank was to pay more than £802 million of loans. These loans completely
harmed the bank’s capability and it had to
be bailed out by the state[10].
Co-operative Bank made a poor
decision in merging with
Britannia. If they had done proper
investigations into the deal, they would have
found out a set of things that would have warned them from taking the deal. First,
at the time of the merger, Britannia was being investigated
by the Regulator. Instead, the bank went
on with the deal. Secondly, the bank
would have discovered that Britannia was a failing business. The Regulator was to later tell Co-operative bank that the
housing society would not have survived without the merger.
In
Australia, the situation is no different. The
National Australia Bank once had
a situation that could have been avoided through making the right
decisions. It faced continued volatility
that led to the resignation of both its chairman and its CEO. In March
2004, the National Australia Bank (NAB) forced the resignation
of about eight senior staff members and disciplined
or moved at least 17 others and restructured
its board of Directors. This
came up as a result of losses that amounted to over $360
million in foreign currency trading. This loss
drew the attention
of the investors and shareholders to the speculative and high
risk investments that the NAB had
been getting involved in to stay in profit.
A report by
Pricewaterhousecoopers (PwC) showed that
the damage would have been worse
with the potential of being the worst banking
crisis in Australia. The losses came up as a result of a decision by the bank’s investors to exceed the highest
amount it is allowed to invest in the money market.
They surpassed this limit in an effort
to lower losses they had incurred
some time before in the same market[11]. This happened when the dollar
weakened against two of their favourite currencies, the Australian dollar and the
New Zealand dollar. They exceeded the trading
limits in an attempt to cover the losses,
but it only
got them deeper into losses.
This is a direct
disregard for the company’s rules and
regulations. The executive would have avoided most of the
losses if it
had stuck o the rules. They
also failed to inform the shareholders
about the problems the company was
facing. Instead, they chose to cover
up the losses and only got
deeper into losses.
The Bank of Queensland
posted a net loss of $90.6
million in the first quarter of 2012. This was as a result of revision to their regulations and thereby
enabling unqualified
borrowers to take loans with the company. The
bank eventually suffered losses in terms of bad loans.
While the bank
looked at the regulations as a way to improve its operations, they did not foresee
the losses.
Again, this is a case of poor decision
making that could have been avoided. If
only the company
had put its mind on effective money making practices,
it would have been able to, at the
least, avoid making losses. They,
however, chose to implement new practices
and eventually started making losses.
This could be a case of poor, or no,
research at all[12].
On
7th February 2013, The United bank of India reported Rs. 1238.08 crore net losses for the
quarter ended December 31,
2013. These losses were mainly as a result
of bad loans and non-performing assets that were
unearthed by the Reserve Bank
of India (RBI). The bad loans came up
to the tune of Rs. 2260
crore. Over the year 2013, the NPAs and bad
loans rose by Rs. 7900. While defending the
company, the bank’s officials raised
issues of a poor Infosys system which they claimed failed in categorising
badly performing loans and NPAs. It is, nevertheless, very important to note that over 90% of banks in India are
still using this software on their systems and no other
bank has had similar issues. Also,
the NPAs and bad loans have
been noted to have started increasing
immediately after Archana Bhargava joined
the company as CEO. IT is, therefore, very likely that
the bad loans
were as a result of the bad decisions
that were made by or due to the presence
of the bank CEO. It has been noted,also,
that there has been an increasing gap between the CEO and the
senior leadership at the bank.
While it may not be clear what exactly
caused the troubles
that are being experienced at
United Bank of India, it is clear
that the bank
had the capability
of making better decisions to avoid this situation. It
has been thought that the
software that is raising concerns
was not updated even after the provider of the software required the
bank to renew it. More so, it is also
clear that the
bank should have been able to see
the effect of the failure sooner
than they did and cub additional losses.
Another factor that is clear is that if
the bank’s management
had been more
cohesive they would have been able to communicate
better as well as avoid such issues
as are being experienced.
State bank
of India saw a dip in profits for the
quarter ended 31st December
2013. It reported a 34% drop in profits. This
drop resulted from the poor management
of the company’s lending system. With their lending system, they have been
able to issue too many loans
that have ended up being defaulted. The provisioning
of the bad debts
resulted in the drop in profits.
To make matters worse, the State Bank of India has been having hard
times since they adopted their system. The adoption of their new system has proved
to be a failing one, but the bank does
not seem to be letting go.
This is a case where an institution adopts a decision in oneness. While cohesion
is a good factor at the work place,
the company should be let go of ideas
once they fail[13].
Deutsche
Bank has also experienced its
share of big losses this year.
It reported a $1.3 billion dollar loss for
the quarter ended December 2014. It also blamed the
decline in bond trade that assisted
in the reduction of the bank’s revenue
by about €6.6 billion[14]. Deutsche experienced big losses in the
bonds and other
fixed securities as investors
shifted their focus from them
to the booming stock business. The bank
also attributed some of its losses to lawsuits that were being conducted against it over suspicions of misconduct. The bank
has had to pay, for example, a
sum of €528 million concerning accusations
that the bank was part
of a group of banks that tried to manipulate benchmark interest rates.
The case of Deutsche bank is a distinctive one. While the bank
had done all
in its power to maintain its
profitability, company principles
contributed in part to the losses that were
experienced. If the bank had
been more receptive
to the changing business, it would have been able
to reduce the losses. One thing they would have done
is to distribute their resources
over more investment methods. That way,
some investments would have been
profitable while others would
have resulted in losses. Overall, the losses would have reduced with a big margin.
The bank’s
acquisition of Hypo Alpe-Adria bank
was such a good
idea when it
was done. It fitted
perfectly into the bank’s expansion strategy.
Hypo Alpe-Adria bank was operating in south and Eastern Europe and this meant hat
Bayern-Lb would be able t service
these regions as well. At the criminal trial
over the acquisition, the former risk
officer said that the deal
would have been a perfect one if
it were not for the collapse
of the global financial markets. The acquisition
eventually costed the bank 3.7 billion Euros. The management in this case rushed the
deal and failed
to assess the risk involved in the
acquisition.
In this case, there have been reasons
to show that the management was
under pressure, to allow the deal. They, as
aresult, were not
in a position to make a fair decision on the
matter. Political influence is a real problem when dealing
with decision making. In cases where political
pressure is piling on the bank’s executive,
it is only advisable
that they consult
widely so that
they can fully understand the matter before them.
The challenges
of decision making in most cases lie
on the shoulders of the executive or
senior members of a company. However,
when the decisions
already made turn out to be wrong ones; everyone in the company shares
the risk. Some
people lose jobs; others get demotions or are transferred while others get their salaries reduced[15].
From this report, decision makers are able to choose the
right decisions. However, the right
decisions are not made for some reasons.
First, there may be political
forces that are pushing for the decision
to be made. In the case of Bayern-Lb Bank, the company executives could have made the
right decisions but the people
who wanted the
decision to be speeded did not let the
executive do enough research into the company to avoid losses.
Secondly, the decision makers sometimes
fail to research properly on the deal.
Eventually, they make the wrong
decision and cost the company
large sums in losses. In most the
cases discussed on this paper, proper
research was not done. Some of these
companies that had not been known to make
losses were then found making
losses that were unacceptable
to the company shareholders and the
public. To ensure this is done
well, the banks
should allocate enough funds into the research
department.
Thirdly, sometimes lack of proper managerial skills may lead to poor decision
making skills[16]. In some
cases, pure ignorance results in people being unable
to choose a right decision from a wrong one. In that case, the company
involved should be completely
careful when selecting its workers[17].
Fourthly, the authorities show a laxity in controlling
the activities of the bank. Banking
institutions seem to be in a position to do anything they like with their money. The regulation
authorities should be in a position
to determine what amount of the bank’s
resources can be invested or used for
development. By doing this, the banks will be sustainable businesses and will not require to be bailed out at any point.
Another way the relevant authorities
can ensure there is sanity in the banking
industry is by ensuring that errors that cost
the shareholders money are prosecuted
if they are negligent[18].
Finally, there should be proper
guidelines to assist the decision makers during the decision making
process. These guidelines
should be clear and specific to ensure that the people
involved in the decision making process
know what is right and what
is unacceptable. The policies
of the company should be able to guide the
decision makers to make a decision that is beneficial to the company and to everyone involved.
The banking
industry is a very delicate industry. The industry holds
so much power
in its hands that its collapse in most cases
results to collapse in many other industries.
This shows clearly that the
people involved with decision making have
so much power
in their hands[19]. To prevent
them from making wrong decisions and hurting
the economy, the companies should put enough effort
to the process of making the policies
as self sufficient as possible. A good
culture at the work force can also
be cultivated to ensure that the leadership
gives their work enough attention. They should also be ready to sacrifice enough funds for
research since the consequences of poor decisions usually result in big losses.
In conclusion, most poor decisions can be avoided. The can, however, be avoided if all parties
participate in its elimination.
2013. “Government Picks 7 Banks For 5 Percent Stake Sale In Coal India (the banks include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank).” India Business Insight, 2013.
2013. Bank Of America To Pay Fannie Mae $11.6 Billion To Buy Back Troubled Loans. n.p.: National Public Radio, 2013.
2014. “Bank of America Should Pay $2.1B for Fraud, U.S. Says.” National Mortgage News, 2014.
2014. “Financial Companies Announce Results Schedules, Milestone Achievements, Preferred Stock Dividends, and Board Changes – Analyst Notes on Bank of America, ICICI, TD Bank, First Republic Bank, and RBS.” PR Newswire, 2014.
Ashill, Nicholas J., and David Jobber. 2013. “The effects of experience on managerial decision-making uncertainty.” Journal Of General Management 39, no. 1: 81-110.
Beck, Joseph B., and Margarethe F. Wiersema. 2013. “Executive Decision Making: Linking Dynamic Managerial Capabilities to the Resource Portfolio and Strategic Outcomes.” Journal Of Leadership & Organizational Studies (Sage Publications Inc.) 20, no. 4: 408-419.
Daning, Hu, J. Leon Zhao, HuaZhimin, and Michael C. S. Wong. 2012. “Network-Based ModelingAnd Analysis Of Systemic Risk In Banking Systems.” MIS Quarterly 36, no. 4: 1269-1291.
Drescher, Frederik. 2013. Insolvency Timing and Managerial Decision-making. Wiesbaden: SpringerGabler, 2013.
Faulin, Javier. 2013. Decision Making in Service Industries : A Practical Approach. Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis, 2013.
FitzGerald, Stephen P. Decision Making. Oxford, UK.: Capstone Pub., 2002 <http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&sope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&
Franklin II, Carter L. “Developing Expertise In Management Decision-Making.” Academy Of Strategic Management Journal 12, no. 1 (January 2013): 21-37.
Gianiodis, Peter T., John E. Ettlie, and Jose J. Urbina. 2014. “Open service innovation in the global banking industry: Inside-out versus outside-in strategies.” Academy Of Management Perspectives 28, no. 1: 76-91.
Goh, Kim Huat, and Robert J. Kauffman. 2013. “Firm Strategy and the Internet in U.S. Commercial Banking.” Journal Of Management Information Systems 30, no. 2: 9-40.
Gormley, Todd A., Bong Hwan Kim, and Xiumin Martin. 2012. “Do Firms Adjust Their Timely Loss Recognition in Response to Changes in the Banking Industry?.” Journal Of Accounting Research 50, no. 1: 159-196.
House of Commons Treasury Committee (2012). The FSA’s report into the failure of RBS. London: The Stationery Office Limited
Keane, John G. “Some Observations on Marketing Research in Top Management Decision Making.” Journal Of Marketing 33, no. 4 (October 1969): 10-15.
Kráčmar, Jan, and MiroslavUhliar. 2012. “The Impact Of Control Processes On Managerial Decision Making.” Problems Of Management In The 21St Century 3, 43-52.
Kunc, Martin H., and John D. W. Morecroft. 2010. “Managerial decision making and firm performance under a resource-based paradigm.”Strategic Management Journal 31, no. 11: 1164-1182.
Munusamy, Jayaraman, Ernest Cyril De Run, Shankar Chelliah, and SanmugamAnnamalah. 2012. “Adoption of Retail Internet Banking: A Study of Demographic Factors.” Journal Of Internet Banking & Commerce 17, no. 3: 1-14.
Singh, Kamini. 2011. “Innovated Technology in Banking Services.” Journal Of Internet Banking & Commerce 16, no. 2: 1-15.
Sutcliffe, Kathleen M., and Gerry McNamara. 2001. “Controlling Decision-Making Practice in Organizations.” Organization Science 12, no. 4: 484-501.
Pricewaterhousecoopers, (12 March 2004). Investigation into foreign exchange losses at the National Australia Bank
Zhu, H (2008) Capital Regulation and Banks’ Financial Decisions. International Journal of Central Banking. Vol. 4, No. 1 pp 165-211
Bertrand M., Mullainathan S., Shafir E., Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision-Making among the Poor: Journal of Public Policy and Marketing
Beresford B. and Sloper T. (2008). Understanding the
Dynamics of Decision-Making and Choice: A Scoping Study of Key Psychological
Theories to Inform The Design and Analysis of the Panel Study: York; University
of York
I declare the assessment two is my own work and has not previously been submitted for assessment.
This work complies with Curtin University rules concerning plagiarism and copyright.
I have referred to www.policies.curtin.edu.au/documents/unit_outlines_plagiarism_state.doc for plagiarism and copyright information. I have retained a copy of this assignment for my own records.
of this assignment for my own records.
[1] Beresford B. and Sloper T. (2008). Understanding the Dynamics of Decision-Making and Choice: A Scoping Study of Key Psychological Theories to Inform The Design and Analysis of the Panel Study: York; University of York
[2] Zhu, H (2008) Capital Regulation and Banks’ Financial Decisions. International Journal of Central Banking. Vol. 4, No. 1 pp 165-211
[3] House of Commons Treasury Committee (2012). The FSA’s report into the failure of RBS. London: The Stationery Office Limited
[4] 2013. “Government Picks 7 Banks For 5 Percent Stake Sale In Coal India (the banks include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank).” India Business Insight, 2013.
[5] 2013. Bank Of America To Pay Fannie Mae $11.6 Billion To Buy Back Troubled Loans. n.p.: National Public Radio, 2013.
[6] 2014. “Bank of America Should Pay $2.1B for Fraud, U.S. Says.” National Mortgage News, 2014.
[7] Gianiodis, Peter T., John E. Ettlie, and Jose J. Urbina. 2014. “Open service innovation in the global banking industry: Inside-out versus outside-in strategies.” Academy Of Management Perspectives 28, no. 1: 76-91.
[8] Beck, Joseph B., and Margarethe F. Wiersema. 2013. “Executive Decision Making: Linking Dynamic Managerial Capabilities to the Resource Portfolio and Strategic Outcomes.” Journal Of Leadership & Organizational Studies (Sage Publications Inc.) 20, no. 4: 408-419.
[9] Ashill, Nicholas J., and David Jobber. 2013. “The effects of experience on managerial decision-making uncertainty.” Journal Of General Management 39, no. 1: 81-110.
[10] Beck, Joseph B., and Margarethe F. Wiersema. 2013. “Executive Decision Making: Linking Dynamic Managerial Capabilities to the Resource Portfolio and Strategic Outcomes.” Journal Of Leadership & Organizational Studies (Sage Publications Inc.) 20, no. 4: 408-419.
[11] Pricewaterhousecoopers, (12 March 2004). Investigation into foreign exchange losses at the National Australia Bank
[12] Zhu, H (2008) Capital Regulation and Banks’ Financial Decisions. International Journal of Central Banking. Vol. 4, No. 1 pp 165-211
[13] Bertrand M., Mullainathan S., Shafir E., Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision-Making among the Poor: Journal of Public Policy and Marketing
[14] 2013. “Government Picks 7 Banks For 5 Percent Stake Sale In Coal India (the banks include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank).” India Business Insight, 2013.
[15] Drescher, Frederik. 2013. Insolvency Timing and Managerial Decision-making. Wiesbaden: SpringerGabler, 2013.
[16] Beresford B. and Sloper T. (2008). Understanding the Dynamics of Decision-Making and Choice: A Scoping Study of Key Psychological Theories to Inform The Design and Analysis of the Panel Study: York; University of York
[17] Beck, Joseph B., and Margarethe F. Wiersema. 2013. “Executive Decision Making: Linking Dynamic Managerial Capabilities to the Resource Portfolio and Strategic Outcomes.” Journal Of Leadership & Organizational Studies (Sage Publications Inc.) 20, no. 4: 408-419.
[18] Faulin, Javier. 2013. Decision Making in Service Industries : A Practical Approach. Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis, 2013.
[19] FitzGerald, Stephen P. Decision Making. Oxford, UK.: Capstone Pub., 2002 <http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&sope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&
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