Reflection Paper Overview

  1. Hypothesis testing

The hypothesis test is part of my daily working routine. I employ the hypothesis test in my current job to discern the rate at which labor increase affects productivity. Based on the experimental setting of my work, hypothesis testing explores the relationship between two or even more variables. I am an assistant manager. And in this case, hypothesis testing helps me when it comes to making management decisions. I am glad, through the help of hypothesis testing, I can examine the effects and causes before arriving at management decisions. 

Management consultancy collects a sufficient amount of data, then equations regarding the collected data are set up. For example, an equation can appear like this: y=ax + b. According to the business growth and profits samples, “y” could denote profits of the company and “x” could denote growth. The equation could be a result of the company’s wishes to test the effect of growth on the profits (which is: X on Y). A and B are the parts of the equations where the real interest lies. B represents the y-intercept, while A represents the slope in the equation. The hypothesis test here narrows down of the size of A. for instance, when A is large, a minor change in the growth of the business is likely to affect the business in a big way. But there will be no effect when A is equal to zero. The “null” or hypothesis test will be if A is equal to zero. Rejection of the null indicates that growth has an impact on the profits. 

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Hypothesis testing is more of a statistical exercise where I work. Most of the time, data comes first before performing the test. Management consultancy firms and economic research agency are the sources of the data. At times hypothesis test is conducted by them on behalf of my company. Data is compiled for a certain hypothesis. For instance, when my company is out to explore the impact of economic growth on profits of the business, the management consultancy will probably collect data within growth in gross domestic product and the company’s profit margins about 10 or 20 years old. 

  1. Confidence intervals

With regards to my work, confidence intervals offer me more than the estimated range. Moreover, it informs me of the state of the estimate – basing on stability. A stable estimate provides nearly the same outcome on multiple surveys. Unlike it is an unstable estimate. The outcomes from it vary from one another on multiple surveys. Instability here is a recipe of wider confidence intervals. A good incidence to illustrate this is this example. 7% of the consumers are undecided, and the error margin of the survey of the business is minus or plus 3%; the estimate here relatively unstable. One sample of consumers could have 8% percent of undecided consumers while the other sample could have 2%. The values are within the error margin of the initial survey even with four times more undecided consumers. 

On the other side, more look on confidence intervals regarding the point estimate assures my company that the value estimated is somehow stable; repeated survey would produce nearly the same result. Calculation of confidence intervals depends on a standard error in measurement. Considering a survey like Employees volunteering poll, the calculation on the standard error indicates how best the poll (estimate sample point) can approximate the ideal value (population parameter). For example, the number of customers surveyed that said they would buy MiFi versus the number of surveyed customers that will buy the MiFi within one week. A smaller standard error and narrower confidence intervals are signs of a larger number of measurements made (surveyed customers). The standard error is calculated first, before being multiplied by a constant reflecting the desired significance levels to determine the confidence interval under the normal distribution. 95% confidence intervals constant is 1.96.    

  1. Regression analysis

A mathematical way of sorting out variables that have an impact is regression analysis. The company collects data regarding the variable in question (for example, should we consider another promotion or maintain the current one?). The company considers the numbers of monthly sales of the business for like the past five years together with any data related to the independent variables that catch the attention of the business. In this case, we can dig deep to as well find out the average monthly MiFi purchases for the last five years. After that, we generate a graph based on the information from the findings. The amount of sales goes on the y-axis and x-axis the total amount of MiFi. On the graph are blue dots which each represents a month’s data – the total sales made by the business and the total amount of MiFi that month.  

According to this data, promotion increases the rate of sales, since they have higher sales. Drawing a line in the graph that roughly runs through the center of the points of data will be helpful when it comes to answering questions like, how much sales were there on months with promotions. For instance, if the equation appears like this, y= 500 + 50x, could mean that the business made 500 sales with promotion. And For this case, the same could go forward if the variables remain constant.

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